Pasco County’s Growth Is Landing in Small Buildings

The Pasco Industrial Brief, Q3 2026. A quarterly read on the industrial and flex market behind your building

Of the Pasco County economic development wins last year that reported a building size, half landed in buildings between 7,500 and 100,000 square feet.

Eight projects, 12 percent of the square footage. Four big-box projects took 87 percent. The remaining four, all under 7,500 square feet, accounted for the last 1 percent.

That split is the most useful thing we can tell a Pasco property owner right now, and almost nobody is saying it out loud. The headlines follow the million-square-foot announcements, because those are the ones with ribbon cuttings and job numbers attached. But when you count the deals rather than the square footage, the county’s growth is arriving in exactly the kind of building most Pasco owners actually hold.

What the Numbers Show

The Pasco Economic Development Council recorded 21 project successes in its most recent fiscal year, representing $116.3 million in capital investment, 547 new jobs, and about 1.6 million square feet. Sixteen of those 21 projects list a square footage figure. Sorted by building size, they break down like this:

Those sixteen projects total 1,569,200 square feet, which reconciles to the EDC’s published figure of roughly 1.6 million. The four largest projects account for nearly 87 percent of the space. The eight in the middle band account for 12 percent of the space but half the deal count.

For an owner, deal count matters more than square footage. You are not competing for the 500,000 square foot distribution requirement. You are competing for the company that needs 20,000 feet with a roll-up door and some yard, and there were eight of those last year in a single county.

Where They Landed

The geography is the part that surprised us. These projects did not cluster along one corridor. They spread across the county:

– Fraga Industrial, 39,000 square feet, Dade City, logistics and distribution

– The Fulfillment Lab, 35,910 square feet, Lutz, logistics and distribution

– ShineOn, 30,840 square feet, Lutz, advanced manufacturing

– CRYOGENE, 30,000 square feet, Land O’ Lakes, life sciences and medical technology

– FCM Smart Center Group, 26,200 square feet, Odessa, advanced manufacturing

– Tampa Civil, 11,000 square feet, Lutz, business and professional services

– METechs, 10,000 square feet, New Port Richey, logistics and distribution

– Vantagepoint AI, 10,000 square feet, Wesley Chapel, high technology

Dade City, Lutz, Land O’ Lakes, Odessa, New Port Richey, Wesley Chapel. Six different submarkets, four different industry categories. If you own a building anywhere in Pasco, this activity is happening near you, not three exits down the interstate from you.

Most of It Is Companies Already Here

The EDC reports that it supported 15 existing Pasco County companies in expanding their operations inside the county last year, and that 6 of the 21 successes were recruitment. Most of the activity was companies already here growing in place rather than businesses relocating from somewhere else. The EDC’s business retention and expansion team visited 80 companies over the year, work that produced $75.3 million in capital investment and 459 new jobs on its own.

This is the quietest number in the report and we think it is the most important one for owners. Recruitment stories get the press release. Retention happens in existing buildings, which means it happens in inventory that already exists, owned by people who already own it. When a Pasco company outgrows its space, the first search is almost always local, and usually within a few miles.

The County Is Manufacturing Its Own Tenants

There is a supply side to this that is easy to miss. Pasco County operates SMARTstart, a small business incubator program that in August 2026 was named to TIME’s list of America’s Best Incubators and Accelerators, one of only 80 programs recognized nationally. The ranking was presented in collaboration with Statista and weighted alumni evaluations, program track record, and expert recommendations.

The EDC reports that SMARTstart has helped more than 600 businesses get started since it was founded in 2012. The program runs three entrepreneur centers, in Dade City, Holiday, and Wesley Chapel, and in the most recent fiscal year counted 88 incubator members, 129 businesses counted across its incubator, CO.STARTERS, and microloan programs, 454 individual counseling sessions, 211 classes and workshops, and 1,473 event participants. Its microloan program has supported companies that have created more than 295 direct jobs.

Businesses do not stay in an incubator. They graduate, and when they graduate they need space. Isla Maritime is the clearest recent example: a marine services provider specializing in vessel salvage and commercial diving, which grew fast enough to purchase a 3,000 square foot warehouse and office space in Port Richey, a $565,000 investment logged as an existing-industry expansion. Escape Brewing Company took 6,606 square feet in Trinity with a $2.5 million investment and was the EDC’s Economic Excellence award winner in the small company category for fiscal year 2024-25.

Three thousand square feet is below the band most owners track. But a company that needs 3,000 feet today is the company that needs 12,000 in four years, and it will look for that space in the county where it started.

The Big Projects Still Matter

None of this is an argument that the large deals are unimportant. Bauducco Foods opened the first phase of its Zephyrhills production and distribution campus in 2026, a 160,000 square foot facility and roughly 120 full-time jobs in phase one. The company bought 85 acres at the Zephyrhills Airport Industrial Park Ready Site, expects to invest more than $200 million, and has planned the campus in three phases through 2030, with about 600 jobs across all three. Pasco EDC named Bauducco its 2026 Economic Excellence award winner in October.

The pattern repeats. MiTek committed 111 acres and $78 million for 150 jobs in 2024. Amazon’s robotic sortation center brought 68 acres, $150 million, and 500 jobs in 2022. Monin, the French flavor and syrup manufacturer, received Pasco County approval in July 2026 for a facility near the Zephyrhills airport and plans to purchase about 70 acres at the same Ready Site, a project the company expects to exceed $100 million and to employ more than 100 people in its initial phase.

Those commitments are what put Pasco on a site selector’s list in the first place, and they bring suppliers, contractors, and service businesses with them. Many of those downstream companies need 10,000 to 40,000 square feet. The big announcements and the small-bay demand are the same story told at two different scales.

What We Are Watching

– Whether the pipeline holds. The EDC reported 157 leads and 113 active projects in the pipeline as of its annual report, which is the leading indicator for next year’s deal count.

– Whether retention stays ahead of recruitment. Only 6 of the 21 successes were recruitment, and a retention-weighted mix favors existing buildings.

– Ready Sites absorption. Six sites totaling more than 2,500 acres are prepared for development, and two of the county’s largest projects, the Bauducco campus and the approved Monin facility, are tied to the Zephyrhills Airport Industrial Park site alone. What gets built there shapes the next decade of competition.

– Graduation pressure from SMARTstart. More than 600 businesses started since 2012 is a pipeline of future tenants that has to go somewhere.

What This Means If You Own a Building Here

The useful takeaway is narrower than a market forecast. Pasco County added 547 jobs and $116.3 million in investment across 21 projects last year, and half of the projects that reported a size fit in a building between 7,500 and 100,000 square feet. The county’s labor force stands at 301,819 with unemployment at 4.7 percent. The EDC returns an estimated 60 to 1 on investment and is one of only 86 organizations accredited by the International Economic Development Council.

The growth is real, it is distributed across the county, and a meaningful share of it needs the kind of space you already own. Where your specific building fits depends on its size, location, clear height, and condition, and that is worth understanding before a lease rolls or a decision comes due.

We publish this brief every quarter. If you would like to talk through where your building sits in this market, or just want to know what is happening near it, we would welcome the conversation. The next issue comes out the first business day after the fourth quarter closes.

About the Authors

Coy Lowrey is an Associate in industrial sales and leasing at NAI Burns Scalo. A lifelong Tampa Bay native with multi-generational family roots in Pasco County, he focuses on industrial and flex properties in the 7,500 to 100,000 square foot range and industrial-zoned land.

Kelli Hatton is a Senior Vice President at NAI Burns Scalo based in Tampa, focused on industrial leasing and investment sales. She brings more than 25 years of sales and sales management experience, including over a decade in Tampa Bay commercial real estate, and has represented owners ranging from large REITs to private operators.

Sources

Pasco Economic Development Council, Annual Report FY 2024-25. Project counts, capital investment, job creation, square footage by project, business retention and expansion figures, SMARTstart program metrics, Ready Sites, awards, and organizational accreditation.

Building-size breakdown of EDC project data: NAI Burns Scalo analysis of Pasco Economic Development Council Annual Report FY 2024-25 project tables.

Pasco Economic Development Council press release, October 5, 2026. 38th Annual Awards winners, including the 2026 Economic Excellence award and Bauducco Foods site and investment figures.

Pasco Economic Development Council media release, August 19, 2026. SMARTstart named to TIME’s America’s Best Incubators and Accelerators 2026; ranking methodology; businesses started since 2012.

Pasco Economic Development Council media release, July 13, 2026. Monin manufacturing facility at the Zephyrhills Airport Industrial Park Ready Site.

Pasco Economic Development Council press release, February 11, 2026. Isla Maritime Port Richey purchase and company description.

Pasco Economic Development Council press release, February 3, 2026. SMARTstart Microloan Program job creation figures.

Bauducco Foods, 2026. Phase one opening, facility square footage, phased campus plan, investment, and job figures.

Pasco County Board of County Commissioners, July 2026. Approval of the Monin facility.

Florida Department of Commerce, August 2025, as published in the Pasco EDC Annual Report FY 2024-25. Pasco County labor force and unemployment rate.

Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council, as published in the Pasco EDC Annual Report FY 2024-25. Pasco EDC return on investment estimate.

About NAI Burns Scalo

NAI Burns Scalo, an investment and advisory organization headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, is an integral part of NAI Global, which spans over 325 offices across 55 countries. Currently with offices in Florida, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, our strategic positioning ensures exceptional outcomes for clients with access to over 6,000 professionals worldwide. With over 100 dedicated specialists, we seamlessly integrate into this expansive network, excelling both locally and globally. 

Since 1956, we’ve been at the forefront of providing commercial real estate services such as brokerage, property management, development, and construction. We’ve learned the ropes, navigated the tides, and honed expertise that only comes from over six decades of experience. This is about more than just finding a commercial space for your business. It’s about delivering life-changing real estate experiences to propel you forward. To learn more, NAIBurnsScalo.com.